Equirus Securities said Lupin’s US business has delivered strong growth over the past four years, supported by high-value launches including generic Myrbetriq and generic Jynarque. These launches helped the company achieve its highest-ever quarterly revenue and EBITDA in Q1.

However, Equirus expects Lupin’s US business to moderate over the next six to eight quarters due to increasing competition in its top three products—generic Jynarque, generic Myrbetriq and generic Spiriva—which together account for around 55 percent of US revenues.

The brokerage expects Lupin to continue outperforming the Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) by around 1.2 times, supported by new product launches, a growing chronic portfolio and in-licensed products.

Equirus also expects Lupin’s growth markets and other developed markets to deliver a 10–11 percent CAGR through FY28E, driven by new launches and expansion of its diabetes and metabolic franchise.

The brokerage highlighted Lupin’s Apixaban opportunity in the US, where the product targets an approximately USD 8 billion market. Following the US FDA’s decision to deny Lupin’s suitability petition, the product will need to be marketed through the NDA route, which could lead to slower uptake and additional commercial challenges.

With AB-rated generics expected to enter the market from April 2028, Equirus estimates Lupin’s Apixaban revenue at around US$50–70 million in FY28E.