The upcoming expiry of patents for semaglutide-based medicines is expected to create a significant growth opportunity for generic pharmaceutical manufacturers over the next 12 to 15 months, according to an industry report. Patent expiries across India, several emerging markets and select regulated markets such as Canada and Brazil are projected to open up an addressable opportunity exceeding USD 600 million.

Industry estimates suggest that around 10 to 15 domestic and global drugmakers are likely to compete for this opportunity. In India, the introduction of generic semaglutide formulations, expected during the 2026–27 financial year, could generate incremental revenues of approximately USD 12–24 million within the branded formulations market.

Regulated markets are expected to contribute the bulk of the opportunity. Canada and Brazil together could account for nearly USD 540 million in incremental revenues, while emerging markets may add a further USD 60–120 million.

Generic versions of semaglutide are anticipated to be launched at prices around 30–50 per cent lower than current branded products. As competition intensifies, discounts could deepen to as much as 70–75 per cent, significantly improving patient access to GLP-1 therapies for diabetes and obesity, particularly in price-sensitive markets.

Market leadership in the generic semaglutide segment is expected to consolidate among five to ten players. Several Indian pharmaceutical companies are already advancing regulatory filings and approvals, positioning themselves to capture early market share.

The availability of lower-cost generic semaglutide is also expected to support broader growth in the pharmaceutical market, providing a modest boost to India’s branded formulations segment while expanding access to advanced metabolic therapies.